From the President’s Desk
July 2008

The 2008 Presidential Election and Beyond
By Ralston Deffenbaugh, LIRS President

In the midst of this year’s presidential race, I’m often asked what I think of the candidates’ positions on immigration and refugee issues. As a church-based nonpartisan agency, LIRS does not endorse or oppose individual candidates, but we try to understand the political forces at play and to work for a more generous national policy of welcome for refugees and migrants. That said, here’s how I see things now.

It’s encouraging to me that Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama both have positive positions on immigration. McCain was co-author of the 2005 McCain-Kennedy proposal for comprehensive immigration reform, a proposal which generally met LIRS’s four criteria for positive immigration change. While he moderated his pro-immigrant voice during the primaries, there is no doubt about McCain’s commitment to reform. I have heard him speak in a moving and excruciatingly detailed way about how migrants die in the desert when attempting to enter the United States and thus why there needs to be reform.

Obama is the son of an immigrant; his father came from Kenya to study in the United States. Obama has not been as significant a leader on immigration issues but his voting positions have been pro-immigrant. He championed a family unity provision last year.

Because the two candidates’ positions are so close, it is unlikely that immigration will be a major issue in the fall campaign. In the Spanish-language media, however, it is likely that both candidates will raise the issue—Obama to win support in a constituency where he is not well known; McCain to show that, unlike some other Republicans, he is supportive of immigration.

What about after the election? It is unlikely that we will see comprehensive immigration reform in 2009. Although polling shows that 60 percent of voters favor comprehensive immigration reform, immigration falls in the middle of the top 10 issues for the electorate, not at the top. The new president will likely pursue other initiatives at the beginning of his term. 2010 might bring a better chance of reform, but only if Congress feels pressure from business and ethnic groups and hears moral outrage from faith communities. Unfortunately and tragically, the brokenness of our immigration system will have to get worse before it gets better.

As for refugee policy, the major factor will be Iraq. If the war is going better, and conditions become safer for the 4 million displaced Iraqis to return home, the pressure will ease off for the United States to expand Iraqi resettlement beyond the current low levels. But if the security situation in Iraq continues to be chaotic, and if the United States starts disengaging, then the pressure will mount for resettlement of much larger numbers of Iraqis. In any event, the stability of the region will require much higher levels of assistance for the Iraqi refugees who have fled and for their host countries.

In sum, I am grateful that both candidates have positive positions on immigration and refugee matters, that immigration is unlikely to become a partisan issue in the general election, and that there is reasonable hope that within the first two years of the new administration we might well see comprehensive immigration reform and a more generous policy toward Iraqi refugees.

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